Research article

Outlook

External risks persist around the outcome of the UK EU referendum and wider changes to global tax regimes

■ Continued improvement in economic conditions in the UK and Spain, Gibraltar’s major trading partners, will further bolster growth. A diversified economy and professional expertise across a variety of sectors will help sustain Gibraltar as business destination in its own right.

■ In common with other jurisdictions, Gibraltar faces external risks. To date, the finance, insurance and online gaming sectors have shown resilience as a low tax jurisdiction within the EU, in the face of changes to regulatory regimes outside of Gibraltar. Following the introduction of the UK’s point of consumption tax Gibraltar lost some of its competitive advantage in the gaming sector. In spite of this, online gaming has remained committed to the territory, citing the benefits of established infrastructure coupled with local skills and expertise in the sector.

■ Some uncertainty exists around the UK EU referendum and the impact it would have on Gibraltar’s economy and position with EU partners. The Gibraltar government is lobbying for special status in the EU in the event of UK exit, but in the near term this remains an unknown in the market, as it does for the UK.

■ New developments targeting HNWI have the potential to attract a new wave of wealth to the Rock. The territory may look at the development of Monaco as it grapples with similar issues of restricted land supply and the current demands of super rich, while retaining its own special sense of community and diversity.

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