The Savills economic growth score highlights major cities with the best economic prospects over the next decade. This is a selection of seven of the best performers in their region across the globe.
1. Jakarta, Indonesia
Forecast growth score: 367
The Jakarta metro area is predicted to overtake Tokyo’s to become the world’s largest, reaching a population of 38.7 million people by 2027. The city’s middle class is expanding rapidly, supporting 5.6% annual growth in consumer spending over the next decade. Growing retail and service sectors are stimulating real-estate demand.
2. Shenzhen, China
Forecast growth score: 354
Designated as China’s first special economic zone in 1980, Shenzhen’s subsequent growth has been stratospheric. Now a tech manufacturing centre and one of China’s most liveable cities, personal income and consumer spending are forecast to grow by 6.1% and 6.6% per annum over the next decade, respectively.
3. Melbourne, Australia
Forecast growth score: 214
One of the world’s most liveable cities, Melbourne’s population is forecast to grow by 20% over the next decade. Some estimates show it will overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city in the next 20 years. The positive outlook is fuelling activity in the Melbourne central business district office market, with absorption three times the national average.
Forecast growth score: 174
Stable Singapore, a safe haven in Pacific Asia, looks to remain internationally competitive over the long term. GDP is forecast to grow at a rate of 2.8% per annum over the coming decade, outpacing the rate of population and employment growth. Office rents recently bottomed out and the leasing market is in an early upswing.
5. London, UK
Forecast growth score: 147
In spite of short-term Brexit uncertainty, London is forecast to still be Europe’s largest city economy in 10 years’ time. Its metro area GDP is higher than that of Paris, and the gap is set to widen from 10% to 22% between 2017 and 2027.
6. Toronto, Canada
Forecast growth score: 140
Toronto proved resilient in the global financial crisis. GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% per annum over the next decade, employment by 0.9% and population by 1.5%, reflecting an openness to immigration. Measures have been introduced to cool Toronto’s residential markets, where prices have been rising rapidly due to strong overseas investor demand.
7. San Francisco, US
Forecast growth score: 137
San Francisco has been a big winner in the digital age and is forecast to continue growing for the next decade. The city has stolen a march on Silicon Valley as young, creative talent continues to be attracted to live and work in this vibrant centre of innovation and business.
Savills economic growth score
An indexed number to show the effective economic strength of different cities. It is a weighted combination of:
Forecast GDP growth
Forecast employment growth
Forecast population growth
Forecast income growth for the next 10 years (2017-2027).
100 = 1% per annum compound growth in all categories.
Source: Oxford Economics, World Bank, UN, other national statistics, Savills World Research